The nation's stores saw their first sales gain in 14 months in September, a sign of life from shoppers that fuels some hope for the holiday shopping season.
A late Labor Day and delayed school openings helped boost back-to-school sales in September. And stores' figures are looking better compared to last September, when spending plummeted amid the ballooning financial meltdown.
Analysts dissecting the figures say they feel encouraged by the reports even as they acknowledge that business still remains weak and consumers tight-fisted.
"Let the retail recovery begin," said Michael P. Niemira, the chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers. "This is the start of a better performance and better fundamentals."
The preliminary tally by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs registered an increase of 0.1 percent for September, compared with a 1.0 percent drop a year ago. While still tepid, the results mark the first gain since July 2008, when the index was up 1.3 percent.
The tally is based on sales at stores opened at least a year and are considered a key indicator of a retailer's health. The tally excludes Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which stopped reporting monthly sales after it released April results. Stores had struggled with 13 straight months of sales declines, hitting the bottom in November 2008 when sales plummeted 7.7 percent.
Niemira had projected a 2 percent drop in sales at stores open at least a year for September.
As stores announced their results yesterday, J.C. Penney Co., Macy's Inc. and Target Corp. all reported smaller-than-expected declines in sales at stores open at least a year. Limited Brands Inc. -- which runs Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works -- and The Buckle Inc., an accessories chain, both posted increases for the month.
Still, industry worries remain high heading into the holiday shopping season because shoppers, many of whom were afraid to spend a year ago, are now grappling with rising job losses, reduced hours or unavailable credit.
The unemployment rate is now 9.8 percent, up from about 7 percent last holiday season.
"Consumers remain under pressure on multiple fronts," said Ken Perkins, the president of Retail Metrics, a retail-research company.
"I don't think consumer spending is going to see a substantial uptick. Shoppers are concerned about rebuilding their balance sheets."
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